When institutional traders strive to benefit from the main movements and market shifts, they do not do this in isolation with an asset or specific shares, but rather depending on correlations and distributions between various assets or markets. This point of view completely rhymes with the global macro strategia in such a way that various markets and assets are considered in the development of opinions or opinions.
Today, like the treasury bonds of the United States in ISHARES 20 ETF treasury bond NASDAQ: TLT He agreed, since the United States dollar was sold, a similar rotation can occur between the price of gold and oil, where the main sector of the materials (specially presented shares), and the energy sector will see most of the price action in the coming months.
Tracking the price effect between the two areas of the economy, for example SPDR METALS & MINING ETF NYSEARCA: XME next to SPDR Section SecTOR SECT Foundation NYSEARCA: XleInvestors can clearly see that the market begins to receive preference to one over the other, since energy has exceeded the prey by as much as 10% over the last month, where the question arises of whether gold can support or pull back.
Gold and oil: historically strong correlation
There are many more reasons to believe that gold can maintain rally, for example, inflation and reduction of the dollar. However, recent gold rallies could be evaluated in some of these factors. If this fear is present among gold bulls, a global macro can help them reduce some potential risks of rollback.
Considering that the PMI production indices of the United States and China in this quarter began to enter into expansion, investors should consider some reasons why Warren Buffett would remain optimistic in oil by continuing the accumulation of accumulation OCCIENTAL PETROLEUM CO. NYSE: OxyField
Transocean today
- 52-week range
- $ 2.55
▼
$ 6.88
- Value is valuable
- $ 5.42
It is clear that breakthroughs in global production activities will lead to the addition of additional demand for oil, helping shares such as OCCIENTAL and other costs higher in the value chain, for example, as Transocean Ltd. NYSE: RIG or US Oil Fund LP NYSEARCA: Usewhich can become hedging for portfolios, which are still long oil.
Moreover, given that both gold and oil are correlated goods, with an average correlation of up to 50%, investors can see that today’s negative correlation (therefore, a huge gap in the productivity between gold and oil) creates a fundamental and statistical opportunity for profit, while maintaining the position of gold.
Analysts Wall -Strithon also seem to stand behind this topic. Currently, they have a target price of $ 5.42 for TRANSOCEAN shares, which calls for 82% of the height where the shares are traded today. Helping to repeat the thesis about oil bullshit and drillers, Vanguard Group also entered into support of the gaze with additional purchases.
As of February 2025, the group increased its assets in Transocean shares by 1.2%, bringing a clean position to $ 295.4 million. USA, or 9% of the company’s ownership.
Gold prices can lead to the fact that Barrick is higher
One of the gold mining, which is perhaps not at the full price of Gold from Gold Barrick Gold Corp. NYSE: GoldAnd even his own leadership recognizes this today. As of the last quarter, the last round of corporate ransom included this action, signal insiders consider it a cheap and filled potential potential.
Barrick gold today
- 52-week range
- $ 15,11
▼
$ 21.35
- Dividend yield
- 2.14%
- P/e ratio.
- 15.22
- Value is valuable
- $ 23.75
Moreover, Wall Analysts -Strithon decided to focus on Barrik Gold as a potential winner if gold prices retreated from the place where they rose today. Those from Raimond James, in particular, came to the rating ahead of Gold on Barrik, as well as an estimate of $ 24 per promotion to cause as much growth as 30% of growth, where it is traded today.
No matter how much bulls seemed that others were also ready to bet on this point of view, such as Capital International Investors, the largest institutional owner of Barrick Gold Stock today. As of February 2025, they decided to increase their share by 136.1% in the company.
After this distribution, the group currently owns the Barrick Gold shares in the amount of up to $ 516 million. USA or 1.9% of the company. This is confirmed by the fact that this action can still offer a fantastic ratio of risk to remuneration in case prices for gold have retreated and close the gap to oil.
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