The market continues to price in the possibility of a rate cut in 2025, which could be a big mistake. Despite inflation falling from COVID highs, it remains hot and uncooperative. Even if data for January and February are weaker than expected, the inflation trend remains flat, not downward, and does not correspond to the … Read more
Nonfarm payrolls data came in hotter than expected, bolstered by other labor market indicators that suggest the FOMC won’t cut interest rates this year. The overall figure was more than double what was expected; unemployment fell to 4.1% and wages rose about 4%. Rising employment and wages signal that one Fed mandate has been met, … Read more
After sharply raising rates to fight inflation, the Federal Reserve is signaling it will cut rates at a more measured pace. After a larger-than-usual 0.5 percentage point cut in September, the central bank’s rate-setting committee last week cut the benchmark rate by a further 0.25 percentage point. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark federal funds rate affects … Read more