The spot price of gold has risen by more than a third over the past year, repeatedly hitting record highs over the past few months. Ahead of the November election – and amid a long period of investor uncertainty over inflation and other concerns, as well as expectations of lower interest rates – gold’s role as a safe haven has likely helped propel it to new heights.
However, after the elections, the precious metal behaved more chaotically. The price fell about $180 a troy ounce, or about 6.5%, from Election Day to its low in mid-November. Investors have tended to interpret the move in a variety of ways: as a sign of post-election stability and as the emergence of a future administration’s policy outlook, or as a response to a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields, or any number of other reasons.
However, by the end of November, gold sharply changed course and resumed its upward growth. While gold prices often correlate negatively with dollar strength, the price of the commodity rose even as the dollar remained strong. Gold may have experienced a short-term rally as a result of intensifying hostilities in Ukraine, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets again. In any case, retail investors are now faced with difficult choices when choosing how to invest in gold or gold-related stocks. Here are some of the main entry points to this precious metal and a few considerations to keep in mind.
Gold bars and futures
Investors had a seemingly short time after the election to buy physical gold or gold futures while prices were deflated, although the recovery has now erased much of that discount. For this reason, investors may want to focus on gold-related investments if they expect the price to continue to rise towards record levels again.
The move could come if geopolitical uncertainty continues to rise or if the dollar weakens, as some investors expect if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates. However, it may also be that the new administration’s policies may have the opposite effect, and the dollar will continue to strengthen in response. New tariffs, for example, can trigger a sell-off in the target country’s currency – as happened in 2018 when President Trump imposed trade restrictions on China, causing the yuan to fall by about 10%. Given this uncertainty, it is likely difficult to predict the trajectory of gold bullion and futures prices.
Gold Mining Shares
Newmont today
(As of 11/27/2024 ET)
- 52 week range
- $29.42
▼
$58.72
- Dividend yield
- 2.38%
- Target price
- $54.31
Shares of selected gold mining companies, including major players such as Newmont Corp. New York Stock Exchange: NO and Barrick Gold Corp. New York Stock Exchange: GOLD as well as junior mining companies such as OTC Dryden Gold – are affected by the price of gold, but there are also many other factors affecting these companies.
Many leading gold mining companies fell along with gold prices in November, but have so far failed to recover along with prices for the metal itself. NEM shares, for example, have fallen by about a quarter in the last 30 days.
Barrick Gold today
(As of 11/27/2024 ET)
- 52 week range
- $13.76
▼
$21.35
- Dividend yield
- 2.28%
- P/E ratio
- 18.89
- Target price
- $25.60
Investors may view some of these gold stocks as a better way to benefit from potential future increases in gold prices, as they are still available at a premium compared to their lofty prices earlier this fall.
If the decline in stock prices is due to other factors—government regulation of mining operations, rising production costs, or a variety of other issues—then there is no guarantee that the price of those stocks will rise along with gold.
Gold ETFs
VanEck Gold Miners ETF Today
VanEck Gold Miners ETF
(As of 11/27/2024 ET)
- 52 week range
- $25.67
▼
$44.22
- Dividend yield
- 1.28%
- Assets under management
- $13.93 billion
Another access point is through gold mining ETFs, including those focused on mature companies – the VanEck Gold Miners ETF. NYSEARCA:GDXFor example, those that target young companies, such as the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF. NYSEARCA:GDXJ.
Over the past year, GDX is up 30.6%, just shy of the S&P 500’s 30.9% gain, while GDXJ is up 34.8%.
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF Today
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
(As of 11/27/2024 ET)
- 52 week range
- $30.89
▼
$55.58
- Dividend yield
- 0.38%
- Assets under management
- $4.98 billion
One benefit of these types of funds is diversification, which can be especially important given the widespread uncertainty in the precious metals space.
While both of the above funds have underperformed gold futures slightly in the past year, they may attract more investors as buy-and-hold options due to ease of access.
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