Shares Modern Inc. NASDAQ: MRNA rose more than 12% following news of the first confirmed death from H5N1 avian influenza in the United States. The stock rose more than 14% at one point before bouncing back late in the trading session. However, after the close, shares fell to $47.53 and have continued to decline since then.
Modern today
As of 11:46 am ET
- 52 week range
- $35.80
▼
$170.47
- Target price
- $78.83
Whenever a stock makes a big move on news like this, investors need to take a deep breath before making any investment decisions. In this case, the movement of MRNA shares is predominantly reactionary in nature. The short interest rate is around 11%, so any surge in buying will result in short positions being covered.
This does not mean that there is no correlation. In 2023, the company received a $176 million grant from the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) to create an updated mRNA vaccine against the H5N12 virus. This virus is currently in the early stages of testing. However, that’s all speculative investors need to try to burn short positions, but it may not be enough to sustain the rally.
Is Moderna one of the best stocks for 2025?
Despite the consensus recommendation of “Hold” according to Moderna analysts’ forecasts on MarketBeat, Barrons recently included Moderna on its list of stocks to watch in 2025. Analysts are encouraged by the breadth of Moderna’s stock portfolio.
In total, the company expects to receive approval for 10 new vaccines in the next three years. This includes the three candidates he plans to nominate in 2025.
Moderna stock forecast for today
$78.83
76.92% Growth potentialHold
Based on ratings from 22 analysts
| High forecast | $179.00 |
|---|---|
| Average forecast | $78.83 |
| Low forecast | $40.00 |
Moderna stock forecast details
In addition to treating respiratory viruses, Moderna is collaborating with Merck and Co. New York Stock Exchange: MRK for the development of cancer vaccines. This is a way for Moderna to take a seat at the personalized medicine table. The company’s most advanced candidate is V940-Keytruma, which entered Phase III trials in 2024. The vaccine is used as indicated for the treatment of melanoma, NSCLC and specific refractory lung cancer.
Under the partnership, Moderna attempts to identify genetic mutations in a patient’s tumor cells and then designs and administers a unique INT mRNA for each patient. The idea is that each INT (iodonitrotetrazolium) chemical compound will be specific to each patient and activate their immune system to fight specific cancer cells.
Under the terms of the partnership, Moderna received an advance of $250 million from Merck. The two companies share development costs and will equally split profits or losses if the vaccine reaches commercial status.
Adding numbers
The value that additional revenue from new vaccines can provide cannot be underestimated. Moderna currently generates approximately $3 billion in annual revenue. It also has a cash balance of $9 billion. That’s more than some biotech companies generate, even those with products on the market.
It is understood that the bulk of this revenue comes from the third and fourth quarters, which corresponds to the flu season in the Northern Hemisphere. One example is Moderna reporting $1.9 billion in revenue in its November earnings report. This brings the total for the first three quarters of 2024 to $2.2 billion.
However, the concern is the company’s R&D expenses, which Moderna has revised downward but will still be around $4.7 billion annually. The research and development costs were driven by the huge profits the company made from its COVID-19 vaccine.
But these funds have dried up. This means that the company is unprofitable. And that explains why MRNA stock is down more than 60% in 2024, making it not only one of the worst health care stocks, but one of the worst stocks of 2024 across all sectors.
Sell this news and wait for more
With the company’s fourth-quarter earnings not due until February, it’s no surprise that traders are taking profits on this surge in MRNA stock.
But that’s when the real opportunity may arise. Investors will be waiting for news about the company’s pipeline.
MarketBeat analysts have a consensus price target for MRNA stock of $79.50. That gives the stock nearly 77% upside from its January 7 closing price. However, there are mixed views on the stock, which clearly means that not all analysts are bullish on Moderna’s prospects.
Before you think about Moderna, you need to hear this.
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