Novo Nordisk A/S today
Novo Nordisk A/S
(As of 12:16 pm ET)
- 52 week range
- $99.42
▼
US$148.15
- Dividend yield
- 0.67%
- P/E ratio
- 34.93
- Target price
- US$150.40
Recent sales of little-known Madrigal Pharmaceuticals stock. NASDAQ: MDGLcould bode well for Novo Nordisk A/S New York Stock Exchange: HBO. The pharmaceutical giant has seen explosive growth in sales of its GLP-1 agonist drug, semaglutide. Sales of the drugs sold under the Ozempic and Wegovy brands rose 32% and 76% in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023.
However, Novo Nordisk shares have fallen significantly from the all-time highs they reached in mid-2024. The stock has now delivered a total return of just 5% for the year as of the December 17 close. This was largely due to further clinical results that showed Zepbound to be more effective in weight loss. It is a GLP-1 agonist drug marketed by Novo’s main competitor, Eli Lilly. New York Stock Exchange: LLI. I’ll talk about the fall in popularity of Novo stock in the second half of 2024. Then I’ll explain other clinical and financial results that could help revive Novo stock.
Semaglutide faces negative news on several fronts
In mid-2024, the study compared Novo’s semaglutide to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, also known as tirzepatide. The goal was to find out which drug led to more weight loss. Patients taking tirzepatide lost more weight than those taking semaglutide at every interval measured. After 12 months, patients taking Lilly’s drug lost nearly 7% more weight than those taking Novo. In December, the researchers published additional data supporting these findings. The news was a dark cloud hanging over Novo stock. They have fallen 24% since researchers published the study in July, as of the closing date on December 17th.
Clearly, markets are concerned about Novo’s ability to maintain sales growth for its GLP-1 when there is clearly a more effective drug available. In addition, there is a lot of talk that the price of the drug will be subject to negotiations under the Medicare program. This will lower the price of the drug, reducing the amount of revenue Novo can collect from each Medicare patient. Meanwhile, market commentators don’t seem to believe Zepbound will face the same scrutiny.
MASH: a possible new frontier for semaglutide
Although Novo and Lilly’s drug is currently approved only for the treatment of obesity and diabetes, the companies are constantly exploring its potential to treat other diseases. This includes metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). This is a disease in which fat accumulates in the liver, leading to scarring and cirrhosis of the liver if left untreated. It is different from alcoholic steatohepatitis (ASH). Liver damage is not associated with excessive alcohol consumption. For this reason, it is also called non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Until recently, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had not approved any treatments for MASH.
Novo Nordisk A/S stock forecast for today
US$150.40
Growth potential 38.53%Buy
Based on ratings of 7 analysts
| High forecast | US$160.00 |
|---|---|
| Average forecast | US$150.40 |
| Low forecast | US$120.00 |
Details of the Novo Nordisk A/S stock forecast
In March, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals received FDA approval for its MASH treatment. Since then, sales have been growing rapidly. Revenue from MASH’s drug Rezdiffra grew more than 400% from the second to third quarters of this year. Revenue of $62 million beat Wall Street consensus estimates by 83%. Some analysts now predict that sales of the drug will exceed $500 million in 2025. By 2030, Evaluate analysts expect sales of Resdiffra to exceed $3 billion. They estimate that the entire MASH treatment market is worth nearly $10 billion a year.
Phase 3 trial results indicate that Novo could capture a significant portion of this market. The main goals of MASH studies are to improve liver fibrosis and eliminate steatohepatitis without worsening any condition in people with MASH. Researchers compare it to a placebo. In patients taking semaglutide, the rate of achievement of both endpoints was 17% higher than in the placebo group. The difference between patients taking Resdiffra was only 12%. This indicates a possible efficiency advantage over Resdiffra.
MASH approval could help change minds about semaglutide
Given these results, Novo plans to apply for regulatory approval of semaglutide for the treatment of MASH in the first half of 2025. This will be done in both Europe and the USA. This could make the company’s drug the second to enter the MASH market.
Given Rezdiffra’s explosive sales growth, Novo could achieve the same result if authorities approve its drug. Success in this multibillion-dollar market could boost Novo’s value. This could improve sentiment around semaglutide, given the recent negativity. However, Novo will need to continue to innovate in the weight loss market to maintain its dominant position over Eli Lilly and other competitors. Novo continues to hold 65% market share of global GLP-1 volume.
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