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Against the background of the volatility of the market caused by the tariff, some shares in the financial sector are directly untouched from tariffs. Digital insurance of artificial intelligence (AI) FinTech FinTech Lemonade Inc. NYSE: LMND It stands out as one of them with its destructive model, solid growth indicators and a technological advantage. The company uses complex algorithms and machine learning (ML) to analyze the oceans to evaluate risk and sign individual insurance policies in less than 90 seconds, automate the processing of claims within three minutes, detect fraud and process customer service.

Lemonade competes with a digital insurance supplier Root Inc. Nasdak: root and traditional insurance company Hamilton Insurance Group Inc. NYSE: HGField

Lemonade shares are traded approximately 25% since the beginning of the year (YTD). The company is not yet profitable, but has a way to profitability, which was abstracted as a result of a large emission, as a result of which the shares are reduced to attractive levels to $ 30 per share.

Limonad had a hard fourth quarter to close the year of execution

The company announced the profit for 4 quarters of 2024 for a loss of shares (EPS) 42 centers, which amounted to 18 cents of improving consensus estimates of loss of 60 cents. Revenue increased by 28.8% in annual calculus (YOY) to $ 148.8 million. USA, evaluating crushing grades for $ 144.98 million. USA.

Lemonade also completed its second expansion and expansion of their relations with financing with its General Catalyst synthetic agent partner, which will provide an additional 200 million US dollars to finance investment in growth until December 2026.

Key metric in the right direction

When it comes to insurance companies, there are several key indicators that you can pay attention to. Lemonade Key performance indicators (KPI) are improving:

· Premium in force (IFP) They increased by 26% year to 944 million dollars, and the bonus per client increased by 5% to $ 388, and the total customer amount increased by 20% to 2.43 million. IFP represents total premiums collected in current politicians that are active. IFP grew in a fifth quarter in a row in a row.

· His Gross loss factor (GLR) It was 63%, its best result. GLR represents how many bonuses are used to pay claims. GLR is less than 100% good, and the lower it falls below 100%, better. GLR Lemonade was reduced from 92% in the 3rd quarter of 2022 to 73% in 4024.

· Adjusted free cash flow (FCF) increased to $ 27 million, and gross profit increased by 90% to $ 64 million in the fourth quarter.

· Adjusted income-to rethinks of taxation and depreciation (EBITDA) The loss improved by 18% a year to $ 24 million.

As a result, Limonada revenue, annual insurance premiums, customer base, customer insurance premiums, gross profit (doubled dominance) and free cash flow grew, while GLR and losses are reducedThe field is good news, but bad news was a leadership.

Lemonade problems disadvantages

The company issued recommendations on income in the first quarter of 2025 in the amount of 143 to 145 million US dollars, and the average point was $ 144 million. USA against $ 151.78 million. USA. Lemonade expects the income in 2025 in 2025 will be from 655 to 657 million dollars, and the average point is 656 million dollars. USA, which exceeds consensus estimates of 663.58 million dollars. USA.

This decrease in income leadership in the first quarter can be considered an emission, which could be much worse. Lemonade expects IFP growth by 28% and above 30% by 2026. He also expects that 2025 will become his second consistent year of the positive FCF.

Los -angles

In January 2025, Los -Angeles survived one of the worst forest fires in California in history. In addition to more than 25 fatal cases, more than 16,000 structures lost, setting fire to more than 50,000 acres of land and calling for fires more than 160 billion dollars for property damage.

Forest fires also influenced the direct leadership of Lemonade for the first quarter of 2025. According to lemonade estimates, his obligations About 45 million dollars of gross lossesthat relatively nothing (0.027%) compared to the total calculated damage to the property.

Lemonad President Shai Winginger stated how the company managed to crush expectations regarding the assessment of damage from analysts: “Indeed, some of the calculations on losses for the market share made by some investors and analysts led to estimates for lemonade in the north from $ 200 million.

This is about five times higher than our actual experience based on rough lossThe field is expected that these events will lead to Approximately 20 million US dollars in general. By defending forest fires, his EBITDA guide reflects an improvement in 25%.

The path to profitability remains on the way: Q4 2026 and Q4 2027

The adjusted loss of EBITDA in 4024 Lemonade amounted to $ 24 million, which has improved 33% compared to 36 million US dollars during the year. A pure 4 quarter loss amounted to $ 30 million, which increased by 28.6% compared to 42 million US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2023. Reducing losses and IFP growth are nuts and bolts of their paths to profitability.

The company expected a positive EBITDA by the end of 2026. The financial director of Lemonade Tim Bixby said: “Last year, 2024, we are still in the way, as we have been within two years Positive care of EBITDA … 2026, So this has not changed.

And then the profitability of GAAP, while we did not give an exact date, because it is a little more complicated, as you know, there are many components that you know that fall into a clean loss, We expect it to follow about a year after that And this is also invariably. ”

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