Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway NYSE: BRK.A Always make headlines in February when the company holds an annual meeting. Among the many spins are what the company bought and sold, and how much it invested in the market. The critical detail at the meeting of 2025 is that the cash heap of Berkshir Hateue reached a record maximum, suggesting that the oraculus of Omaha and his investment colossus are on the sidelines.
Berkshire Hathaway today
- 52-week range
- $ 596,000.00
▼
$ 759 923.88
- P/e ratio.
- 9.97
Clichous heap is not just to grow; The cash heap of Berkshira Hathaway, flying almost 70%, increased by $ 134 billion to more than $ 330 billion, which is more significant than the market capitalization of 94% of S&P 500 NYSEARCA: SpyThe collection of funds is due to huge sales in the best names such as Bank of America NYSE: BACApple NASDAQ: AaplAmerican Express NYSE: AXPand Coca-Cola NYSE: KoAssuming that they are overvalued and are at risk of significant correction.
Holdings in BAC and AAPL were reduced, which is stronger, trimmed by 25% and approximately 65%, respectively, but large parts of all provisions were eliminated. And vice versa, the purchase of Bffeta was not significant, not reaching $ 6 billion, assuming that there was not much interesting other than Western oil. NYSE: OxyThe field in 2024 Berkshir assets in this shares doubled, and additional purchases were made in 2025.
Risk is FOMC, inflation and Donald Trump
The risk of the stock market is the influence of Donald Trump’s policy on an already intense economic situation. It is expected that his policy will maintain inflation on a higher than like, due to tariffs and an increase in domestic demand, which, probably, holding FOMC from reducing interest rates. The question is whether inflation will be stable at the current pace or accelerate, as it was in the second half of 2024. If inflation continues to accelerate, FOMC should increase interest rates to combat inflation, which can easily turn the economy into a recession.
Trump’s policy also includes masses of dismissal. The Department of State Efficiency (DOGE) reduces jobs in government jobs and will affect the labor market as a whole. This is the bad news for data on employment and the prospect of consumers, but it may have a silver lining. The reduction in state jobs can compensate for Trump’s inflationary pressure enough to accelerate its inflation at the consumer level so that the increase in bets return to the table. Like it, the Cme FedWatch tool indicates a 92% chance of one increase in the rate with 25 base by the end of the year and about 70% chances for two.
The expansion of economic activity and income growth is an opportunity
The possibility of investors is that the United States will avoid recession, and Trump’s policy will not significantly accelerate inflation. The US economy will remain strong, and corporate income will grow in this scenarios, a bull medium for shares aggravated by expectation of expansion of activity. It is expected that the mitigation of regulatory and tax obstacles will strengthen economic activity in the sectors, which will lead to a wider midwife of shares, which is another good reason for Buffett to collect money. In this light, Berkshir sales in 2024 were Meranial, but also preparatory, attracting capital for deployment in new investments.
Thus, the S&P 500 is tuned to the fall, but is unlikely to fall far, because the prospects for economic growth and growth of income are blue, but still positive. Price correction at the beginning of 2025 can fall by only 5.5% of a record high level, finding support at the January minimum, but there is a risk of deeper correction, since forecasts may continue to decline. The critical support zone is from 5,725 to 5780; In the case of broken, this market can retreat to 5400 or deeper before getting into solid support.
Market catalysts include tariff relief, softening of inflation and lower interest rates, but they are unlikely to appear until late in 2025. S&P 500 may remain in the deduction scheme until the trend on the side within the established range.
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