With less than two weeks until Election Day, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Republican Donald Trump has strong support among Hispanic men, almost erasing the Democrats’ long-standing advantage.
Former President Trump now trails Vice President Harris by just two percentage points among Hispanic men — 44% to 46% — compared to his 19-point deficit with Democrat Joe Biden at the same time in 2020, according to an analysis of more than 15,000 responses to Reuters polls. /Ipsos per month until October 21 and during the same period in 2020.
Trump’s gains have been offset by increased support for Harris among white women, who favored him over Biden by 12 points in late 2020 but now lean Republican by 3 points, 46% to 43%. The two candidates are exceptionally competitive, with Harris leading only marginally — 46% to 43% — in the most recent poll conducted October 16-21.
These shifts are part of larger changes in the coalitions each candidate is counting on to achieve victory, with Trump consolidating his advantage with Hispanic and black voters (especially men) while Harris has cut into the Republicans’ long-standing advantage with white voters by gaining more ground with women.
Robert Alomia, a Hispanic voter in Elizabeth, New Jersey, who works for a security company, said he respects Trump’s career as a businessman and plans to vote for him this year after missing the 2020 election.
“We need people who think fast and people who are willing to lead,” said Alomia, 42, who said he was also sympathetic to Trump’s hard-line views on immigration. “He’s a leader.” “You have these people who come to the country where they have everything, and the door is basically open to them.”
Trump accused the Biden administration of leaving the southern border open to migrants, while Harris countered by blaming Trump for pressuring Republicans in Congress to abandon a bipartisan border security bill that would have tightened border controls.
Hispanic voters, the fastest-growing segment of the American electorate, have leaned heavily toward the Democrats in most presidential elections since the 1970s, but Trump has achieved great successes.
Analysis of the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump has the support of 37% of registered Hispanic voters, up from 30% at the same time in 2020. Harris has 51% compared to 54% for Biden four years ago. Figures are subject to sampling error and have precision levels between 2 and 6 percentage points.
Trump ended up winning 38% of the Hispanic vote in 2020, 21 points less than Biden, but still the largest share for a Republican candidate since President George W. Bush won 44% in 2004, according to an analysis of his polls. Pew Research Center 2020. And historical figures compiled by the American Enterprise Institute.
Transformation among black men
The Republican is also on track to diminish Democrats’ power in the black electorate. About 18% of black men chose him in recent Reuters/Ipsos polls — up from 14% four years ago — as did 8% of black women, up from 4%. Polls after the 2020 election showed that about 8% of black voters overall chose Trump in 2020, while the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed him at 12%.
Christine Davison, a Republican campaign strategist, said Trump is courting black voters by convincing them that the Democratic Party is too extreme on social issues.
“This is what Trump has been able to do with black and Latino men in the last four years, not just on issues of the economy and hard work, but with country and family,” she said.
America’s history of racial tension and injustice looms large in the minds of Trump supporters and critics alike. Trump famously asked black voters during his 2016 presidential campaign: “What the hell do you have to lose?”
“A lot of people might play the race card. They might say he’s racist, they might say he’s using black people. They might say a lot of things. But for me, personally, I feel like he’s proven that he wants everyone to see.” said Kedrick Benford, a Black voter in Houston who did not vote in 2020, but said he thinks he will vote for Trump this time.
Benford, 30, a self-employed retailer, said he considered Trump more experienced than Harris.
Harris kept the race close in part by beating white women, who made up about four in 10 voters in 2020, double the combined share of Black and Latino voters.
While the shares of support for white male candidates are largely unchanged, Harris’ boost among white women means Trump has a lead of just nine points with white voters overall, compared to when he led Biden by 14 points with them in 2020.
Davison, the Republican strategist, said many women turned to Harris in part because Democrats effectively focused their efforts on abortion after a 2022 U.S. Supreme Court ruling ending the right to abortion nationwide.
Women are also weighing “the stark contrast in leadership and character between the vice president and Trump, which is impacting their choices,” said Megan Hayes, a Democratic strategist and former communications aide to President Biden.
“The vice president must expand her lead among female voters to offset Trump’s advantage with black and Latino men,” Hayes added. “This election will be won by the smallest of margins.”
Donna Berg, a white woman in St. Charles, Illinois, voted for Trump in 2016 and again “reluctantly” in 2020, but Berg decisively abandoned Trump after the U.S. Capitol attack on January 6, 2021.
“After January 6, it was all over,” Berg said. She said that the Republican Party had drifted toward extremism under Trump’s leadership and that she would vote for Harris this year. “I’m not necessarily voting for her as much as I’m voting against Trump.”