- Polls show Harris leading among women, and Trump among men.
- Trump may declare victory on election night even though the votes have not been counted.
- Harris will be America’s first black, South Asian woman president.
Nearly three-quarters of voters in Tuesday’s presidential election say American democracy is under threat, according to preliminary national polls from Edison Research, reflecting the country’s deep anxiety after a contentious campaign between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. .
The data showed that democracy and the economy are considered the most important issues for voters, with about a third of survey participants indicating each of them, followed by abortion and immigration at 14% and 11%. The poll showed that 73% of voters believe that democracy is in danger, compared to only 25% who said it is safe.
These data highlight the depth of polarization in a country whose divisions have become more acute during a fiercely competitive race. Trump has used increasingly dark and apocalyptic rhetoric while raising unfounded fears of a lack of trust in the electoral system. Harris urged Americans to unite, warning that Trump’s second term would threaten the foundations of American democracy.
These numbers represent just a slice of the tens of millions of people who cast their votes before and on Election Day, and preliminary results are subject to change during the evening as more people are polled.
Harris was relying on a large turnout of female voters to compensate for her electoral weakness compared to men. Polls showed women making up 53% of voters, largely unchanged from 52% in 2020 exit polls.
The percentage of voters without a college degree who prefer Trump was 57%, down slightly from 59% in 2020, according to the data.
The two rivals were headed toward an ambiguous end on Tuesday after a stunning campaign in which millions of American voters waited in quiet, orderly lines to choose between two very different visions of the country.
A race punctuated by unprecedented events — two attempts on Trump’s life, President Joe Biden’s surprise withdrawal, and Harris’ meteoric rise — has remained close after billions of dollars in spending and months of frenetic campaigning.
Trump, who has repeatedly spread false claims that he won the 2020 presidential election and whose supporters attacked the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, cast his vote near his home in Palm Beach, Florida.
“If I lose the election, and if it is a fair election, I will be the first to admit it,” Trump told reporters.
Harris, who had previously mailed her ballot to her home state of California, spent part of Tuesday in radio interviews encouraging listeners to vote. Later, she was scheduled to speak to students at Howard University, a historically black college in Washington where Harris was an undergraduate.
“To return tonight to Howard University, my beloved alma mater, and to be able to recognize this day for what it is, is truly full circle for me,” Harris said in a radio interview.
History in the making
Polls showed Harris was viewed better than Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia, four of the seven states likely to decide the election, although her ratings are still lower than Biden’s in 2020 polls.
Trump was viewed more favorably than Harris in two of the swing states – Nevada and Pennsylvania – and the two candidates tied in Arizona.
The results of national polls provide an important window into the nation’s thinking, but they may not line up directly with the seven states expected to decide the presidential election.
Exit polls capture differences between turnout in different demographic groups, such as men versus women or college-educated versus non-college-educated voters, and can provide insight into how turnout has changed from previous elections.
One of the main advantages of exit polls is that all the people surveyed are, by definition, people who cast ballots in that election.
Pre-election polls showed candidates running in each of the seven states likely to determine the winner: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
No matter who wins, history will be made.
The first female vice president, Harris, 60, will become the first Black woman and South Asian American to win the presidency. Trump, 78, the only president to be impeached twice and the first former president to be criminally convicted, will also become the first president to win two non-consecutive terms in more than a century.
Control of both houses of Congress also became available. The path ahead for Republicans is easier in the US Senate, as Democrats defend several seats in Republican-leaning states, while the House of Representatives appears to be swinging.
Trump’s campaign has indicated that he may declare victory on election night even while millions of ballots have not yet been counted, as he did four years ago. The winner may not be known for several days if margins in battleground states are as slim as expected.
In Dearborn, Michigan, Nakita Hogue, 50, was joined by her daughter, 18-year-old college student Nima Hogue, to vote for Harris. Nehme said she uses birth control to help regulate her menstrual cycle, while her mother says she needed surgery after a miscarriage in her 20s. Both fear Republican lawmakers will seek to restrict reproductive health care.
“For my daughter, going out into the world and making her own way, I want her to have that choice,” Nakita Hogue said. “She should be able to make her own decisions.”
At a library in Phoenix, Arizona, Felicia Navajo, 34, and her husband, Jesse Miranda, 52, arrived with one of their three young children to vote for Trump.
Miranda, a union plumber, immigrated to the United States from Mexico when he was 4 years old, and said he believed Trump would do a better job fighting inflation and controlling immigration.
“I want to see good people come to this city, people who are willing to work, people who are willing to live the American dream,” Miranda said.