Tesla today
As of 4:00 pm ET
- 52 week range
- $138.80
▼
$488.54
- P/E ratio
- 116.18
- Target price
- $304.94
Tesla, Inc. NASDAQ:TSLACybertruck discounts are bad news for the stock price. The company announced a series of discounts in early January, indicating moderate demand that should drive growth. News reports indicate that workers are being transferred to other lines, indicating that demand is not expected to increase. The bottom line is that the leading electric vehicle maker faces increasing competition and is likely to report another annual decline in total vehicle shipments while the rest of the industry grows.
The outlook for the fourth quarter and 2025 is optimistic, despite a downward trend in revisions. Analysts expect revenue growth to accelerate sequentially and year over year, topping 15% in 2025. Growth will be driven by power generation and services, but weakness in the core auto division will offset them. Headwinds to growth include higher and longer-term interest rate environments, affordability and policy. President Trump is expected to eliminate OEM and consumer incentives for electric vehicles early in his administration, increasing hurdles and slowing demand.
Analysts remain hopeful; Raise 2025 targets, but growth is limited
Analysts are hopeful for Tesla’s success in 2025 and have been raising sentiment and price targets over the past two months. However, the consensus sentiment tracked by MarketBeat remains a Hold, with 22.5% of analysts rating it a Sell and the price target trailing the action. Consensus reached in mid-January suggests potential for a 30% fall from critical resistance targets, but deeper declines are possible. The $300 level coincides with the middle of the trading range and would be a serious bearish signal if crossed. As for the analyst’s upper range, it matches the stock’s 2024 highs, creating a ceiling for the market.
Tesla stock forecast today
$304.94
-28.09% DisadvantageHold
Based on ratings from 40 analysts
| High forecast | $515.00 |
|---|---|
| Average forecast | $304.94 |
| Low forecast | $24.86 |
Tesla stock forecast details
Among the obstacles are sales in China, the company’s second-largest market, which will account for approximately 37% of revenue in 2024. Sales rose 8.8% last year, but factors such as lower prices and loss of market share offset that. The company’s market share fell from 7.8% in the first quarter to 6% in the third quarter and is likely to continue to fall due to increased competition. Local automakers will benefit from the dual impact of incentives at home and tariffs abroad, leaving Tesla struggling. Analysts cite factors such as an aging portfolio as holding back demand, and no new models are likely to boost business.
The most likely Model Q release will be sometime this year, likely in the first half of the year, but no real indication has been given. The likelihood that the company will release a compact car is high; the question is when, how much it will cost to produce and demand. While the Model Q is an innovation, it will be more of a novelty than a growth driver; The car will have limited seating, cargo space, and range, making it less than ideal for most purposes.
Institutions capped Tesla’s earnings in January
Institutions bought Tesla shares on the books in all four quarters of 2024, but the trend reversed late in the year and continued into the first two weeks of January. Data tracked by MarketBeat shows sales in the first two weeks of January doubled purchase volume, matching the market’s recent high. Institutions own over 65% of the shares, so selling will be a strong drag on the share price if it continues.
Volume is another concern for Tesla bulls. A surge in volume accompanies the market surge in 2024, but overall volume and surges are trending downward over time. Volume in early January was down 15% from 2024, significantly lower than the previous year, as retail investors lost interest in the opportunity. With no bullish catalysts expected in the near term and plenty of risk, volume is likely to decline in 2025, increasing the potential for excessive market moves and volatility.
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