Key Points
- AppLovin insiders will sell shares in 2024, so what? It’s up 1000% and likely to go even higher.
- Analysts are upgrading the stock and heading towards above $400 with a chance of hitting $500 in 2025.
- The third-quarter results supported the company’s announcements, with leading analysts expecting earnings to more than triple within three years.
AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP) insiders will sell shares in 2024. InsiderTrades tracks 11 insiders who sold shares in 2024, including numerous directors, CEO, President, CFO, CCO, CTO and CMO for the vegetable soup of executives. Their sales continued into the fourth quarter, when there were 13 transactions (all sales), bringing their share to approximately 14%. The sales come amid rising share prices, but do not pose a threat to investors. The Company uses share-based compensation and activities are consistent with this. Insiders own a significant amount of these shares and it is wise to take profits regularly.
AppLovin likes tailwinds provided by institutions and analysts
What is AppLovin? It is a mobile technology company that operates a cloud-based platform that connects marketers, publishers and advertisers with their target audiences. The company uses AI for customer targeting and automation to help businesses connect, convert and monetize traffic in ways that increase shareholder value. Users can find their audience and create ads, and advertisers have the ability to connect with apps and target audiences through auction.
AppLovin’s 2024 results include sustained double-digit growth, accelerated year-over-year growth, outperformance, revenue above $1 billion, GAAP earnings and improved guidance. Analysts expect growth to be around twenty percent in 2025, with margins expanding significantly. Over the long term, profits will more than triple, from about $4 in 2025 to over $12.30 by 2027.
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There is an opportunity in institutional trading data. In 2024, institutions made on-balance sheet purchases every quarter and held less than 60% of the shares. The opportunity is that institutional investors will continue to buy into the balance sheet, providing a tailwind for the market or even accelerating its pace and strengthening it. There is reason to believe that institutions will increase tailwinds from analyst reactions to third-quarter results.
What started as a trickle of revisions turned into a torrent when Daiwa Securities upgraded the stock to Strong Buy from Hold, a double upgrade compounded by a significant price target increase. The firm’s analysts see executives performing well and delivering on what they promised when they launched Axon 2.0. Axon 2.0 is an updated version of the platform, launched in 2023, delivering increased revenue and profitability.
Daiwa believes the company can generate 20% revenue growth from the gaming industry alone and has raised its price target. The price target increase is notable in that it goes from $80 to $280, nearly 50% above the pre-lease consensus figure, and prompted a massive round of revisions that put the stock at $400 or higher. The $400 level is 33% above the critical support target that AppLovin stock was trading near in mid-December.
AppLovin Returns to Tech Procurement Capabilities
AppLovin retreated from its post-Q3 high, but is likely to set new highs soon. The market pulls back as part of a natural, healthy correction, giving itself time to prepare for a larger move. This will likely push shares to the $400 level and then to new all-time highs. Indicators including MACD and Stochastic are consistent with this forecast, showing bullish conditions and converging momentum, a sign of market strength. A move to new highs will likely spark an influx of new investors and potentially push the market toward the upper analyst range of around $500. Assuming the company continues to build on its success, the revision trend will continue to support the stock in 2025, making a move above $500 possible.
Companies in this article:
| Company | Current price | Price change | Dividend yield | P/E ratio | Consensus rating | Consensus target price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin (APP) | $334.52 | -2.7% | N/A | 99.03 | Moderate purchase | $296.40 |
Experience
Thomas Hughes has been a writer for InsiderTrades.com since 2019.
Areas of Specialization
Technical analysis, S&P 500; retail, consumer, consumer staples, dividends, high yield, small cap, technology, economic data, oil, cryptocurrencies
Education
Associate in Culinary Technology
Past experience
Market watcher, trader and investor of numerous websites. Founded Passive Market Intelligence LLC to provide market research analytics.