Tisha Blackwell, 24, voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but says she will cast her vote for former Republican President Donald Trump this year, with rising food and housing prices the main reason.
Blackwell, who lives southwest of Detroit in the battleground state of Michigan, says she has a better job now, but her rent has since doubled after she had to move, and her grocery and utility bills have gone up.
“I’m no worse than I was four years ago,” Blackwell said on the sidelines of a rally featuring Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, in Detroit this month.
“But compared to then, things are really high here. I went from paying $575 to now paying $1,100 just for rent. I remember ground chuck was $2.99 a pound. Now it’s $4.99. Everything is higher.”
The US post-Covid-19 economic recovery has been the envy of the developed world, as strong consumer spending and business and federal investment helped the economy avoid an expected recession. Stock markets are at record highs, jobs and wages are growing rapidly, unemployment is low and inflation is now below January 2020 levels after rising in 2022.
But prices for food, rent, utilities and things like dining out are all well above 2019 levels, due to complex factors over which the U.S. government has little influence, such as labor costs, lack of competition and supply chain issues.
Many Americans are in a constant state of shock.
This may explain why voters in the seven states that will determine the winner of the November 5 election have a negative view of the economy, with 61% of them saying it is on the wrong track in 2018. Reuters/Ipsos Polled this month, 68% said the cost of living is on the wrong track.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and Trump proposed various reforms. Harris has promised to fight price gouging and boost the child tax credit, while Trump has proposed cutting taxes on overtime wages, imposing comprehensive tariffs on imports that he says will bring manufacturing back to the United States and mass deportations of immigrants.
Many economists say Trump’s proposed tariffs and deportation threats will lead to higher prices for goods and services, while Harris’ price gouging ban has not been tested at the federal level.
However, when asked which candidate had a better approach to the issues, a Reuters poll this month showed Trump leading on the economy by 46% to 38%.
People who study economics say they sense voters’ frustration even if they think Trump’s plan won’t help.
“I understand inflation better than the average person, and I worked at the Fed, but I’m still amazed at how much inflation bothers me,” said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, who has been studying inflation. He has criticized Trump’s tariff plans in the past.
“When I walk into a restaurant I’ve been going to for years and instead of $50, it’s $70, I feel like someone punched me in the face and stole a $20 bill out of my wallet,” Strain said.
Blackwell, the Michigan voter, says she believes Trump’s argument that tariffs are necessary to block imports and protect U.S. jobs. “Yes, it could increase prices for consumers, but something has to be done in the long term,” she said.
Michigan is on the edge
Harris’ visit to Michigan on Monday will be her tenth since becoming the party’s nominee. The state is still reeling from the loss of more than a third of its auto-related jobs since 1990 and supported Trump in 2016, while Biden won by less than three percentage points in 2020.
Harris’ campaign has more than 375 staffers in the state, nearly four times the number of Trump’s staff, yet a compilation of 538 polls shows Harris holding a lead of less than one percentage point over Trump in the state.
Last Monday, Harris and former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney met with suburban voters in Oakland County, outside Detroit. On Saturday, she joined former First Lady Michelle Obama in Kalamazoo.
Michigan’s unemployment rate has been consistently higher than overall U.S. numbers for years, but the state hit its highest jobs and lowest unemployment levels in 20 years last year, with an influx of federal infrastructure money.
Amecia Cross, a Democratic strategist, said the Biden administration deserves credit for creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs in Michigan and across the country, but high costs of living still have a significant impact on voters.
“There are a lot of things that people feel about their personal economy that are not reflected in the jobs numbers,” Cross said, including concerns about the impact of electric vehicles on the local auto industry and housing and food costs.
“It’s not the Dow Jones Industrial Average. People look at whether they have the money to do things they were able to do just a few years ago, and most will tell you they can’t do it,” she said. “All politics is personal. Their perspective is shaped by what they go through on a daily basis.”
Devin Jones, 20, a college student who lives in Flint, Michigan, said his parents, both Army veterans, had to move away and buy a less expensive home in Goshen, Indiana, after inflation soared. They also postponed a long-promised 18th birthday trip to Germany, where Jones was born.
He said the rise in the prices of ground beef and eggs was “ridiculous.” “Under Trump, and under previous administrations, things were fine. Things were not very expensive,” he said.
Not everyone is disgruntled.
Stu Bailey, 43, a UAW member and former Marine who lives in Flint Township, Michigan, said his union job now pays $40 an hour, compared to the $16 an hour he earned a few years ago.
“Getting a union job has dramatically increased my ability to live. I’m much better off but it had to do with the contract negotiation,” he said, adding that higher grocery prices hurt less now given his higher wages.
Bailey says he voted for Biden in 2020 and will support Harris, but says enthusiasm for her is much less than for other Democrats like Biden or former President Barack Obama.
He added: “Voting and supporting are two different things.”